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The Eurasian Wryneck (Jynx torquilla) has been considered an irregular and scarce winter species in Iberia which, together with its low detectability outside the breeding season, may have lead to inaccurate distribution patterns in the Portuguese and Spanish winter bird atlases. Citizen science programmes can offer large coverage data sets for improving the knowledge of understudied or elusive species. To analyze such data sets, species distribution modelling (SDM) is a very useful method that predicts species occurrences, using environmental data. In this paper, I tested different algorithms for modelling the winter distribution of the Wryneck in Iberia, using the records in the GBIF database together with climate factors, topography and land cover variables. The best performance was obtained with the “random forest” model that was subsequently used to determine which variables had the most predictive power. These variables  were annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation and altitude. Finally, with that model, I produced a map which predicts the main potential distribution areas for Wryneck in Iberia, which are the Southwestern quadrant, the main river basins, the coastal areas (especially the Mediterranean) and the Balearic Islands. These areas can be characterized as warmer locations, presumably with higher food availability.

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Keywords: Citizen Science, Iberia, Jynx torquilla, SDM, winter distribution. 

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